After 6 consecutive months of increasing property values in the Fraser Valley (7 months in Greater Vancouver), it appears that the two most recent interest rate hikes are taking some steam out of the growth. While the benchmark home values rose in both regions among all property types, the increase was more or less nominal with the conservative HPI Benchmark metric. Both average and media sale prices fell sharply in July in the Fraser Valley.
The softening prices match the decline in demand as shown via the falling sales to listing ratio in both Vancouver and Fraser Valley boards. The ratio among all housing types, which has remained between 30-37% since March, has fallen to 25%, with single family homes actually hitting 16-17%, which is representative of a buyers markets. The changes in sales to listing ratios can be much more drastic in more localized statistics. Apartments and townhomes, with inventory in the sub $1 million threshold, continue to have strong, but decreasing, demand with markets that favour sellers in most communities.
If July trends continue through August, as I and others expect, it is likely that the benchmark values in most communities, and possibly regionally, will see decreases before autumn as purchasing power and demand wane.
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REGIONAL – GREATER VANCOUVER
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) represents the municipalities closest to, and including, the City of Vancouver. This includes cities like Richmond, Burnaby, and Coquitlam, as well as farther Sechelt & Maple Ridge.
The typical detached Greater Vancouver home gained hit the $2,000,000 threshold for the first time since July 2022, representing a +0.6% annual increase (+1.1% cp June 2023). However, the number of sales, while +30.7% greater than this time last year, has significantly fallen since the May peak, from 998 to 651 (-20% cp June 2023). The trend is starting to look very much like 2022. However, the number of new listings also tanked in correlation with the sales trend. Back in May of this year we had 1,930 new listings – in July we saw just 1,387. The sales to listing ratio which is the best metric to show the supply and demand, has fallen from an annual peak of 27.8% in May to 17% in July. Sellers are definitely feeling this pressure. After 5 months of the average days on market showing quicker and quicker sales, July reversed the trend, bouncing from 25 to 27 days. This may not be a huge difference, but if history is an indicator, we could see this start to rise further above 40 days as we get closer to the final quarter of the year.
Greater Vancouver townhomes saw prices jump significantly between the December HPI Benchmark low of $1,007,800 to just under $1.1m in June, but that growth appears to be slowing, with just a +0.5% increase between June and July. Sales have fallen from the seasonal peak of 495 units in May t0 388 in July. With declining new listings, the active listing have held steady, leading to a decline in the sales to listing ratio: it was 47.3% in May, but now sits at 37.7%. While this is still considered a solid sellers market, the trend is favouring buyers. The average days on market is 18 for a sold property.
Benchmark: $771,600 | Avg Price p/sqft: $955
The “typical” Greater Vancouver apartment condo also only bumped up +0.6% over the last month, but this puts the current benchmark value +2.6% greater than last July’s values. The highest value the benchmark figure has ever been was $776,400 in May 2022. One only has to remember what mortgage rates were at then to understand how much affordability has deteriorated in the last year despite the lower home values. A high ratio mortgage of $700,000 in May 2022 would have had a fixed mortgage of $3,640.49 (*3.89% 3-year) or a variable mortgage payment of $3,066.49. Today, that same fixed mortgage would be $4,516.19 per month (*6.09% 3-year) or a variable mortgage of $4,604.22. So a $771,600 purchase today is not the same as one 12 month ago.
Sales of Greater Vancouver apartments have followed the same trend as other housing types, falling from an annual high of 1,732 in May to 1,284 in July. The number of new listings haven’t fallen as drastically, which means we are seeing an increase in overall inventory. The sales to listing ratio has gone from 43.8% in May to 31.3% in July. Similar to townhomes, this is considered a sellers market, but the trend is favouring buyers. The average days to sold is 23.
REGIONAL – FRASER VALLEY
The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board represents the south of the Fraser Valley cities from North Delta in the west to Abbotsford in the east… plus Mission.
The benchmark value for Fraser Valley’s detached homes increased by +1.1% in July, yet both the average and median values fell for the first time since November 2022 (acutally, the median sales price did fall slightly in June as well). The current value of $1.543m is -3.1% below this time last year. The number of sales were the hardest hit in this market segment, collapsing from 680 homes sold in June to 401 in July. So while statistics might show that this is still +35.9% over last July’s sales numbers, it’s a drastic shift in the trend after 5 months of increasing sales. The number of new listings also fell, from 1,451 in May and 1,370 in June to 1,080 in July. This pushes the sales to listing ratio down from 27% in June to 15.5% in July, which is solidly in buyers market territory. The average days to sell is up to 22.
Fraser Valley’s townhome values rose nominally as well, up 0.6% to $850,300, -2.7% compared to July 2022. Similar to detached homes, the average and median values sunk as well. While there were 474 townhome sales in June, there were only 373 in July. This is +60.1% more than last years slow summer, but also shows a significant turn in the market. The number of new listings declined for the second month in a row, from 698 in May to 660 in June to 588 in July. While limited inventory is holding the townhome market in a sellers market, the sales to listing ratio did still decline from 56.4% in June to 43.8% in July. The average days to sale was 16 in July.
Benchmark: $555,500 | Avg Price p/sqft: $670
The benchmark value for Fraser Valley apartments increased, for it’s 7th straight month, by a few thousand dollars, or +0.6%, to $555,500. This value represents a +0.8% increase compared to this time last year. Unlike detached and townhomes, the average and median values did not decrease. Sales, however, did – dropping from 570 units in June to 461 in July (+29.5% cp July 2022). The number of new listings also fell, but the sales to listing ratio still dropped from 44.5% in June to 35.7% in July. This is still a sellers market, but like other segments, the trend is turning to buyers. The average days on market to sale is 19.
Benchmark: $1,246,800 (-4.3% vs July 2022)
After a significant +3.2% jump in June, there was an equally drastic slowdown in value growth in July. Abbotsford detached homes experienced just +0.1% monthly gain. So while June had a +$38,600 increase on the “typical” Abbotsford home, this figure was just $1,400 on a $1.247 million home. Both the average and median sale prices fell in July as well.
Again, while sales had hit a 12 month high of 99 deals in of June, this declined to 61 (+24.5% vs July 2022), the lowest sales month since February. However, the number of new listings also fell sharply, from 228 in June to 161 in July. Showing a solid buyers market after 4 months of declining sales to listing ratio demand, just 14.6% of detached homes sold in Abbotsford in July (it had been almost 36% in March). The average days on market to a sale is currently 21.
Benchmark: $645,800 (-13.9% vs July 2022)
Value growth has slowed for Abbotsford’s townhome market as well, with a +0.7% increase in the benchmark value.
The number of townhomes sold dropped for the second month in a row, from 74 in May to 66 in June to 52 in July. As is the trend around the region, the number of new listings also fell from 87 in June to 67 in July. The sales to listing ratio therefore held steady, shifting from 54.5% to 51.5%. So although over half of the homes are selling in a month, the demand is no longer fostering higher prices. The average days to a sale for Abbotsford townhomes is 24 days.
Benchmark: $449,700 (-3.9% vs July 2022) | Avg Price p/sqft: $477
Abbotsford’ apartments had the largest gains in Abbotsford, not only by percentage, at 2.7%, by also by absolute dollars with the benchmark value rising +$11,800. The average price per square for an apartment jumped to $477 in July, the highest it has been since 12 months ago, when it was $484, a significant improvement since December’s $387.
While sales declined in July like everything else, it certainly wasn’t as radical as other housing types, only falling from 104 to 87 units. The same goes for new listings, as there were 128 in July compared with 140 in June. While the sales to listing ratio isn’t as extreme as it was in June, at 63%, the current ratio is still a solid sellers market at 53.7%.
Benchmark: $2,111,200 (+3.3% vs July 2022)
Burnaby’s detached home market gained another +0.7% in value to cross the $2.1 million mark for the first time since last June. However, as the last two rate hikes take affect, gains have slowed. Similar to other markets, Burnaby’s detached home average and median sales prices both declined in July.
Sales had already slowed from 90 units in May to 64 in June, so the 59 units sold in July wasn’t a drastic change. There were also only 56 new listings on the market in July. The sales to listing ratio of 24.7% shows a light sellers market. The average days on market for the 59 sales was 23 days.
Benchmark: $949,500 (+0.5% vs July 2022)
Unlike most other markets, Burnaby’s townhome market was actually stronger in July than past months. While June values had increased by just +0.2%, July had a +1.3% increase in the benchmark value. The current value is now over what it was this time last year. Whether or not, however, this jump in value is representative of a trend or a mathematical correction from the slower June remains to be seen.
Sales figures have been steady over the past three months, averaging around 55 units a month, but this fell to 40 units in July. The number of new listings, however, has been falling even more. There were 98 new listings back in May, 67 in June and just 56 in July. So while the sales to listing ratio did decline from 54% to 43% due to lack of sales, this is still a strong sellers market with limited inventory for buyers. The average days on market for sold properties in July was 15.
Benchmark: $785,700 (+3.0% vs July 2022) | Avg Price p/sqft: $937
The typical Burnaby apartment value experienced another nominal increase of just +0.2% in July. This slight bump, however, puts July 2023 as the second highest value Burnaby apartments has ever seen, just $200 under May 2022’s record breaking benchmark of $785,900.
After hitting an annual peak of 298 sales in May, this number has fallen to 213 units. Meanwhile the number of monthly new listings have gone from 408 in May to 383 in July. This has caused the sales to listing ratio to fall from a very hot sellers market ratio of 51.1% in May down to 34.1% in July. While this is still considered a sellers market, it shows that it’s becoming tougher to sell in this market than just two months ago. The average days on market to sale remains at 21.
Chilliwack HPI Tool Found at https://www.cadreb.com/news-statistics/consumer-hpi/
Benchmark: $921,100 (-5.0% vs July 2022)
As I mentioned last month, Chilliwack’s detached homes had a massive +3.7% jump in June to cross the $900k mark. While July didn’t experience gains of that extent, the +2.1% increase was positive for homeowners and sellers. That said, both the average and median sales prices decreased in July.
After a massive 213 detached homes sold in May, sales figures has collapsed: 118 in June and 102 in July. However, the number of new listings has not dropped quite so drastically. While May had 327 units come on the market, there has been an average of 280 new listings per month over the last two months. Due to this, the sales to listing ratio has fallen from 41.5% in May to 16.8% in July. That’s one of the largest supply/demand flips in the region, if not the greatest. The average days to sale is now up to 29 days.
Benchmark: $613,900 (-6.8% vs July 2022)
The typical Chilliwack townhome had a monthly increase of +1.0%. Due to a number of premium sales, both the average and medium sale prices increase in July as well.
As expected, sales have continued to decline from the May peak of 82 units to exactly half, at 41 sales in July. The number of new listings back in May was 92, down to 77 in June, but back up to 79 in July. The sales to listing ratio for Chilliwack townhomes was an extreme 72.6% in May, down to 54.5% in June, and now sits at 35%. While this is still considered strong enough to be a sellers market, you can easily see the trend. The average days on market for the 41 sales was 13 days.
Benchmark: $416,500 (-9.0% vs July 2022) | Avg Price p/sqft: $390
July provided another nominal increase to the benchmark value for Chilliwack’s apartment market, up less than +0.3%, or +$1,100, since June. The average price per square foot dropped from $480 to $390, so take that with a bit of a grain of salt when dealing with a relatively small market. Similarly, the large decrease in the average and median sale prices in the area are due to a number of anomalous sales in July.
The number of sales in Chilliwack’s small apartment condo market has been steady, ranging from 48 back in May, down to 34 in June and back up to 44 in July. Meanwhile, the number of new listings continue to fall from 87 in May to 56 in July. After dipping under 20% in June, the sales to listing ratio has bounced back up to 25.4% as the lack of inventory favours sellers. Despite this, the average days to sale in Chilliwack is 30.
Benchmark: $1,795,400 (-1.5% vs July 2022)
The bnechmark value for the “typical” Coquitlam detached home increased by just under +0.5% in July, it’s highest value since July 2022. Both the average and median sale prices declined in July.
The number of detached home sales dropped from 84 in June to 68 in July. This, however, is still +54.5% greater than July 2022’s sales figure. The number of new listings, which had been 144 in June, was down to 107 in July. The sales to listing ratio has dropped from the annual high of 40% in May to 30% in July, still representative of a sellers market. Homes are still selling quick, with the average days to sale being 16.
Benchmark: $1,061,900 (-1.7% vs July 2022)
Coquitlam’s townhomes may be the canary in the coal mine, as it is one of the markets that actually had a decrease in the benchmark value in July, down -1.2% since June. Although arguably the best way to track home values, the algorithms that the HPI Benchmark uses tends to be very conservative, lagging a bit behind shifts in the market. This is what makes this case interesting, since most Realtors did, I believe, see price reductions throughout the region in July. As expected, and like most other municipalities, both the average and median sales values fell in July.
The number of sales in this market segment hasn’t changed much, from 51 in May to 47 in July. New listings have dropped from 99 in May to 80 in July. With such a low inventory count, with continued high sales, the sales to listing ratio is still holding on to a favourable sellers market with 48.5%. The average days to sale in July was 13 days.
Benchmark: $742,200 (+4.1% vs July 2022) | Avg Price p/sqft: $861
Following a significant jump in June, July had a much smaller increase to it’s benchmark value, up +0.6%. The current benchmark value of $742,200 has beat out last summer’s values in June and July and is inching towards last Spring’s record breaking prices that were all just above $750,000.
Sales fell from 125 units in June to 102 units in July, yet the number of new listings increased from 179 to 192 in that same timeframe. This led to the sales to listing ratio to drop from 53.6% to 39.7% in one month. The average days on market to sale was 22.
The City of Delta is the only local municipality that is represented by two different real estate boards, carving it up between “North Delta” (in the FVREB) and “Ladner” and “Tsawwassen” (in REBGV). Due to this separation, there isn’t a combined MLS statistical dataset for Delta, despite being a community of over 108,000 (2021 Census). North Delta generally represents 45-50% of sales in Delta.
DELTA & TSAWWASSEN DETACHED HOMES
North Delta Benchmark: $1,428,900 (+1.2% vs July 2022)
Ladner Benchmark: $1,450,200 (-0.3% vs July 2022)
Tsawwassen Benchmark: $1,560,700 (-2.4% vs July 2022)
North Delta’s benchmark value rose essentially remained flat between June and July (+$600 on $1.428m) to register as less than +0.05% growth. Meanwhile, Ladner, with just 12 sales, saw it’s “typical” home grow another +1.9% in value, which means Ladner detached homes have seen +16.4% increase in value since March – that’s over $200k in equity on what was a $1.246m home. On the other hand, the higher Tsawwassen benchmark fell a substantial -2.3% in July.
As with the majority of the region, sales in each community decreased in July. In North Delta, the number went from 52 in June to 31 in July; in Ladner and Tsawwassen, the combined number of sales dropped from 43 to 26. The number of new listings in North Delta was 91 in July and 53 combined in South Delta. With this, the sales to listing ratios have all dropped significantly. In North Delta, it went from 29.2% in June to 16.4% in July, signalling a buyers market. Tsawwassen as well went into buyers market territory to 15.6%. Ladner is a little bit more steady at 18.8%, but that’s down from 39% in June. The average days on market for a sale in North Delta was 14, Ladner was 13, and Tsawwassen was 26.
DELTA & TSAWWASSEN TOWNHOMES
North Delta Benchmark: $977,500 (+2.6% vs July 2022)
Ladner Benchmark: $987,500 (+4.1% vs July 2022)
Tsawwassen Benchmark: $1,004,800 (+0.5% vs July 2022)
I mentioned this last month, but I continue to find it interesting to watch these three micro-markets converge. Tsawwassen’s benchmark value was significantly greater before 2021 and have since 2022 been more or less on par with the rest of Delta. The reality is that these are very small markets with very limited data available. There were only 25 townhome sales in North Delta over the last 3 months combined, meanwhile South Delta had another 50 sales in 3 months.
DELTA & TSAWWASSEN APARTMENTS
North Delta Benchmark: $601,400 (-1.1% vs July 2022) | Avg Price p/sqft: $689
Ladner Benchmark: $717,400 (+2.0% vs July 2022) | Avg Price p/sqft: $649
Tsawwassen Benchmark: $690,600 (+1.2% vs July 2022) | Avg Price p/sqft: $687
Delta’s apartment market suffers from the same statistical limitations mentioned in the townhome section above. There were a total of 21 sales in all three areas in July, down from 24 in June and 32 in May. The average price per square foot ranges from $646 to $689, depending on the area.
Note: The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board includes Langley City as a “sub-area” of “Greater Langley”, but does not provide data for the Township of Langley separate from the City. Unfortunately this means that there is no separate “Benchmark HPI” dedicated solely to the Township, but there is for the City. I will use the term “Greater Langley” in reference to the combination of both Langleys.
Benchmark: $1,630,800 (-5.4% vs July 2022)
The benchmark “Greater Langley” detached home increased by another +1.2% in July, although it was the Township that outpaced the City, as the latter had under +0.2% added to detached home values. While the median sales value dropped in both Greater Langley in July, the average home price actually increased.
Detached home sales in the Township of Langley took a significant hit after a banner month in June, which saw 142 sales – in July, there was just 66 sales. The City held steady, with 18 sales, down from 21 the month before. The number of new listings is also declining in the Township, with 213 in May, 192 in June, and 143 in July. The City has had a steady flow of new listings averaging 42 new listings for the last three months and only peaking at 45 in June. The sales to listing ratio in Langley City has therefore been steady, but still a decline from 28.8% in June to 23.1% in July (it had been as low as 20.6% in May). The sales to listing ratio in the Township, however, took a significant hit in July, going from 53% in June to 24.7% in July. The average days on market to sale in Greater Langley was 22.
Benchmark: $848,300 (-7.7% vs July 2022)
The typical Greater Langley townhome increased by just under +1.0% in July, yet both the average and median sales prices declined.
Langley City townhome sales remain constant at 11 units, the same or similar as June (11) and May (12). Meanwhile, the Township dropped from 96 in June to 73 in July. There wasn’t any drastic changes to the number of new listings, with the City adding 22 units in July compared to 16 in June and the Township went from 116 new listings in June to 108 in July. Langley City’s sales to listing ratio was 37.9%, down from the previous 44%, while the Township dropped from an extreme 89% in June to a slightly less extreme 62%. So while demand is definitely on a quick decline, the ratio still heavily favours sellers. The lack of inventory in the townhome market has brought the average days on market to 11.
Benchmark: $612,900 (-1.4% vs July 2022) | Avg Price p/sqft: $680
The benchmark Greater Langley apartment increased by another +1.3% in July, while Langley City apartments went up by +1.0%. The average and median sale prices also increased in July.
As with other communities, sales have been falling quite drastically. In May, the Township had 93 sales, then 77 in June and then 70 in July. Meanwhile, the City saw sales fall from 56 in both May and June to 35 in July. The number of new listings, however, isn’t declining. There were 110 new Township listings in June and 103 in July. Meanwhile, the City increased from 69 new apartment listings to 74. The sales to listing ratio for Township of Langley apartments shifted slightly from 54.6% in June to 47.9% in July, both indicating a strong sellers market. The City, however, had a sharper fall from 62.2% in June to 33% in July. The average days on market for a Greater Langley apartment was 13.
Benchmark: $ | Avg Price p/sqft: $
Due to the rarity of townhomes in New Westminster, I will not provide a detailed analysis of this market segment. My graph above shows the benchmark price over time and I will provide links to statistics for those interested below:
Benchmark: $ | Avg Price p/sqft: $
SURREY & WHITE ROCK DETACHED HOMES
Surrey Benchmark: $1,683,300 (-2.6% vs July 2022)
White Rock Benchmark: $1,930,800 (+0.8% vs July 2022)
Surrey’s detached home market, as represented by it’s benchmark home, increased by +1.1% in July, however both the average and median sales price decreased in June. The South Surrey market jumped almost +1.4% in July, edging closer to the $2 million mark for the first time since July 2022. Cloverdale also gained +1.4%, surpassing July 2022’s values. White Rock, on the other hand, had a massive +2.6% increase in its benchmark home value, which represents almost +$50,000 of value on a home now worth $1.93m.
White Rock is a relatively small market with a limited data set: just 13 detached home sales in July, down from 15 in June and 18 in both April and May. Surrey, however, being the largest city in the Fraser Valley, has the largest dataset in our board. This is where we can really see the substantial decrease in overall sales, as Surrey went from an annual record of 291 sales in June to 173 in July, the lowest since February. This is not typical seasonal decline. It isn’t abnormal to see sales drip a bit in July from late Spring and early summer, but it’s usually a small decline, and even sometimes an increase. However, these significant drops are likely directly related to the two most recent interest rate hikes.
The number of new detached home listings in White Rock went up from 37 to 29, while in Surrey it fell from 658 to 527. The lack of new inventory is most pronounced in neighbourhoods such as Cloverdale, whereas South Surrey maintains a steady level of new product. White Rock’s sale to listing ratio of 13.1% suggests a moderate buyers market. Surrey fell from a balanced 22.6% in June to a buyers market of 12.8%. Again, not all neighbourhoods are equal. Cloverdale’s lack of inventory has kept it’s sales to listing ratio in a balanced market territory of 21.9%, but this is far from the 42.6% or 48% of thiss past June and May, respectively. The average days on market to sale was 23 in Surrey and 21 in White Rock.
Surrey Benchmark: $893,000 (+1.3% vs July 2022)
White Rock Benchmark: $955,800 (+1.2% vs July 2022)
Surrey townhomes had a statistically nominal increase in July, up +0.3% since June. Both the average and median sale prices for Surrey townhomes dropped in July. Meanwhile, the typical White Rock townhome lost -1.4% in value in July, which translates into a loss of over $13,000 in absolute dollars. Cloverdale townhomes also saw a very small (-0.1%) decrease in value.
There were only 2 townhome sales in White Rock proper, down from 4 in June. In Surrey, sales fell from their highest 2023 point of 280 in June to 217 in July. White Rock only had 1 new listing in June and 7 in July. Surrey’s new listing activity fell for the second month in a row, from 424 in May to 358 in July. White Rock’s sale to listing ratio was 28.6%, a moderate sellers market, while Surrey fell from 52.1% in June to 39.4% in July. This is still a sellers market, but demand is waning. The average days to a sale in White Rock is 5 (on 2 sales), and 15 in Surrey.
SURREY & WHITE ROCK APARTMENTS
Surrey Benchmark: $553,300 (+2.9% vs July 2022) | Avg Price p/sqft: $736
White Rock Benchmark: $630,300 (+2.4% vs July 2022) | Avg Price p/sqft: $737
My primary focus is in the Fraser Valley and a select number of Greater Vancouver cities. However, what happens in Vancouver has a significant effect on the rest of the municipalities in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, so it is important to understand the trends happening in the City, as they generally trickle down to other communities.
Benchmark: $ | Avg Price p/sqft: $
CITY NOT LISTED?
Yes, I do cover more cities than those listed above. However, these market reports can get lengthy so I focus on areas which I either do the majority of my business and/or municipalities that have a significant affect on the regional market. If you would like more information about any additional city in the region, please do not hesitate to send me a message at firstname.lastname@example.org.